If, as Tip O’Neill said, “All politics is local,” then the most important election results for Contra Costans last night were the landslide victory of the Pinole Recall and the loss of Prop 93, the cynical attempt by political insiders to dress up an incumbent insurance policy as term limit reform.

The Pinole Recall victory is momentous as it provides a wonderful example for cities like Brentwood, Concord, Disco Bay, and others where ordinary citizens (see video) were able to stand up to unions, the Democratic Party Machine, their curiously silent County Supervisor and neutered Republican Party, redevelopment interests, and an entitled incumbent, seemingly secure in her sinecure, to take back their City from runaway incompetence and pandering to special interests.

The defeat of Prop 93 is promising as it reveals that the electorate was able to see through the vast corrupt deception perpetrated by creeps like Dom Perata, Fabio Nunez, and their toadies in the Assembly, who, more often than not, get to choose their districts, rather than voters select them.

The presidential primary campaigns are finally in California (and a few other states at the same time) but most of us won’t get to see the candidates up close and personal as did the Iowans and New Hampshirites.

A friend in Iowa told me she got to see every candidate there and talk to several of them. She ended up being assigned precinct captain for Chris Dodd at her caucus. There was only one other Dodd supporter at the event, foretelling perhaps Dodd’s quick exit from the hustings the next day.

One issue has been largely absent from the campaigns until now and that’s the war in Iraq. When you’re talking to a potential voter practically (or actually) face to face, they seem to be more interested in Social Security, health care and lost jobs than in international affairs.

That’s beginning to change and will, I feel, become the predominant issue as soon as the nominees become evident. It will be made so by the Republicans. Their theme will be that they are best suited to fight terrorism — especially if the Dems nominate a woman.

Expect blood to flow.

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As we mentioned earlier, the poor incumbents in legislative seats won’t know until Feb. 6, and maybe not for weeks after that, what seats to run for in the June 3 primary election. Only one of the six representing portions of Contra Costa — Assemblyman Mark DeSaulnier, D-Concord, — is not being termed out this year, but he, along with the rest, is caught in the squeeze created by Prop. 93 on the February ballot.

Prop. 93 would extend term limits by two years and give terming-out incumbents the right to run for re-election, and almost certain victory, in their present seats. There’s little doubt that they would all do just that.

But if it doesn’t pass, DeSaulnier will pass up certain re-election to the final two years he is currently allotted in the Assembly and go for the State Senate seat held by terming-out Tom Torlakson, D-Antioch, who would turn around and run for DeSaulnier’s Assembly seat since he qualifies for two more years there.

In other districts, which share territory with other counties, the termed out Assembly members are weighing whether to try to step up the Senate.

Assemblyman Guy Houston, R-San Ramon, has a slightly different problem. He’s beng termed out of his Assembly seat. Alameda County portions of the nearest Senate District include most of the voters, giving anyone from the eastern portions little chance of winning. He eyed the state Board of Equalization seat being vacated by term limits but the Republican Party has already selected former legislator Dean Andal of Stockton as its candidate.

That means he’ll be out of politics or he can step down, and he’s chosen to do the latter, running against fellow Republican Mary Nejedly Piepho for the non-partisan 3rd Supervisorial District seat. If Prop. 93 passes, he would undoubtedly seek re-election to the Assembly instead.

Meanwhile, assuming his 15th District Assembly seat will be vacant, 11 candidates have taken one or more official steps towards the June ballot, including three Republicans nine Democrats and one Libertarian.

The standout is former San Ramon Mayor H. Abram Wilson, a banker highly regarded in the community. It’s probable that a number of candidates will drop out before the filing deadline. If Prop. 93 passes, giving Houston another chance, most of them would drop out.

Prop. 93, by the way, is trailing badly in the polls.

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For a full list of primary election filings for local seats see the rest of Pat Keeble’s most recent article at the Contra Costa Insider