A Barack Obama victory, however, will likely usher in a stark difference between the parties not unlike the election of Roosevelt in 1932 and Reagan in 1980. Very serious policy implications are likely to follow in just the first two years as the Democrats seek to capitalize on their new found power.

1. The House/Senate - Legislation. An Obama victory more than likely means that the Democrats will pick up 10 to 15 or more seats in the House and 3-4 in the Senate. The recent special election losses of House seats and a North Carolina Senate poll showing the incumbent Elizabeth Dole in a tight race forewarns of such an outcome.

- a. Knowing that their own poll numbers are low - all the while understanding that the first two years of a Presidency are the most productive and that time may not be on their side, the new Democrat President and Congress will likely move quickly to push their agenda. Look for an ambitious legislative agenda with “progressive” legislation on health care, i.e. a huge leap toward nationalized health care, many labor friendly bills including a possible shortened work week, the elimination of secret ballots for union elections/formation, and more (as the Unions cash in after spending a projected $1 billion this fall on behalf of the Dems) as well as the tax increases referenced below - all in the first 100 days.

- b. The only risk to such an agenda will be the fact that Obama has no management, appointment or policy experience - as a result, he may be slow getting out of the box and run into trouble with his appointments. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, however, will be ready with their agenda and may well have an exaggerated influence on policy the first year.

2. The Judicial Implications. In the first 2 years of an Obama term, Ruth Bader Ginsberg (75 years old) and John Paul Stevens (88) will unquestionably resign from the Supreme Court to permit a flush Democrat Congress to appoint like-minded activist judges to tenures likely to last 25 years or more. Justice Breyer (70) and/or Souter (68) may well follow suit, if not in the first two years, before the next election to ensure that a Democrat replaces them - remember Breyer openly professes a belief for an activist judiciary and probably won’t want to risk another 8 year Republican Presidency. Justice Kennedy, now 72, may well have to resign during the 4 year term making it possible that a clear 5 – 4 majority for a liberal court could be ushered in for the next 25 years. That is not hyperbole, it is a distinct possibility.

3. The High Tax Implications. Obama has promised to “go after the wealthy” as if they are big game to be hunted down. In advance of his swearing in, look for a spate of capital gains sales in late 2008 as investors seek to cash in gains at the 2008 rate of 15% - actually pushing up 2008 tax receipts. Thereafter, Obama will raise the capital gains rate to at least 28% and perhaps higher because Pelosi and the Democrat leadership do not believe that the “rich” should be taxed at a lower rate than the working class (and receipts will fall considerably in 2009 and 2010). Obama will also hike the income tax rates to as high as 52% with the help of the new House and Senate Democrats. Look for 2010 tax receipts from income taxes to fall considerably as well. Income tax receipts for corporations, already falling due to a weak economy brought on by the 2nd highest tax burden in US history, will continue to fall because Obama and the Dems will continue to pile on new taxes and more regulations on corporations.

4. The Weak Economy Implications. The US economy is weak principally because we have the 2nd highest overall tax burden in our history. When the tax burden is that high, economies face real trouble and can be tipped into recession rather easily. The housing problems are just that type of straw that weakened the back of the current US economy.

- a. Obama’s tax hike will put the economy over the edge and we will face significant stagflation (low growth turning to a significant recession and rising Consumer Prices) in 2009 and 2010.

- b. Consumer prices will continue to rise, as they did under Carter, because Obama and the Democrats will push a pliable Fed to continue its current easy money policies at the same time that oil prices will continue to increase (oil prices will continue to rise because of demand from China and India, Middle East instability (see below), new taxes on oil companies that will be passed by the Democrats seeking to punish companies that “send jobs overseas” as well as tighter regulations).

- c. In the meantime, the supply/output side of the economy will be choked off because of the tax hikes and the inevitable spate of new regulations which the Obama administration will put into place. Keep in mind that Obama recently said that “”We can’t drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times … and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK,” Obama said. Actually, foreign countries have no say in whether we do that unless we give them that say. Obama’s comment is a strong indication that he will - so watch for a Kyoto like treaties whereby America hands over part of its sovereignty to international watchdogs that will regulate our economic life. The sum result of those regulations will be to drive up consumer prices because our output will fall as a result of higher costs. Such treaties/regulations will harm our economy for years upon years.

- d. Outsourcing will actually rise, not fall, contrary to Obama’s promise to stop jobs from going overseas, because his added regulations and corporate taxes will push up the cost of doing business in America and companies will respond by reducing their American presence even further.

- e. The housing market and the stock market will not post significant gains as rising interest rates push up money market returns and investors seek guaranteed returns from financial institutions and tax free municipal/government bonds (as opposed to risking their capital in a weak economy with high tax rates) – a dynamic which will further weaken the economy. It used to be that investors jumped into the stock market when Dems were elected because of their easy money policies - but the foregoing will reduce that impulse.

- f. The deficit will rise as the economy continues to weaken and spending explodes under the Democrat Congress that is responsive to a good portion of the over $1 trillion of new spending offered by Obama so far - that dynamic will give rise to calls for more tax hikes.

- g. The coffers of state governments will suffer because of the weak economy. Since states can’t print money, those that honestly comply with their balanced budget laws will undergo difficult budget battles.

5. Immigration Policy Implications. There can be no question that Pelosi will push for an “amnesty bill” in the first 100 days that will go farther than the worst bill that was rejected in the past.

6. The Foreign Policy Implications. Uncertainty will set in many hot-spots around the world and a challenge to the new Administration can be expected – much like many new administrations have been tested.

- a. Obama’s Palestinian sympathies will play out in veiled ways and Hamas and Hezbollah will be emboldened in their overt and covert war against the very existence of Israel. Lebanon will likely suffer the most immediate, negative affect as Hezbollah moves quickly to consolidate its hold over that Country. That “Fall of Lebanon” will mean that Iran ( Hezbollah’s supplier) will have a “border” with Israel and Syria will have an even larger border.

- b. Iran’s bellicose policies will rise, at least in the short term, as a test to see if the Obama administration has any resolve. If Obama is foolish enough to have direct talks with Iran, look for Iran to use it as a theatre for denouncing recent American efforts in the Middle East/Iraq and pronouncing that the Fall of Lebanon was a repudiation of American Middle East policy that favored democratic movements. The end results of the talks, wherein American was scolded and Iran given an equal stage, will be to make America look weak and not to be feared - not unlike the Kennedy/Khrushchev meeting of 1961 which emboldened Khrushchev and a year later we had the Cuban Missile Crisis. If Obama is smart, he will listen to his advisors who tell him not to speak to Iran in the wake of the Fall of Lebanon and use Iran’s participation in that Fall as an excuse to break with his campaign promise.

- c. In general, Middle East tensions will rise not fall leading to even higher oil prices. Obama also may be tested immediately in Afghanistan or Iraq but it is more likely that our enemies in those theatres will wait to see if Obama keeps good on his withdrawal promise. If Obama does, al Qaeda and the Taliban will likely wait to escalate their terror until the US has made significant withdrawals. Russia will take advantage of escalating problems elsewhere to solidify its anti-Democratic trends and control over some of its neighbors.

- d. Look for Hugo Chavez of Venezuela to escalate his not-so-covert war with Colombia as the Middle East tensions rise and US attention is drawn to that region. Finally, look for China to assert itself vis-à-vis Taiwan amidst all of these challenges to the US around the World.

- e. Last but not least, look for the US to defer to the UN, if not in practice, perhaps legally as Obama commits the US to act in some way subject to UN oversight.

Those are some of the lowlights of just the first two years in office for Obama. What happens the next two years all depends.

Not unlike Carteromics in 1980, Obamanomics will leave America worse off. It should be obvious by then that “in that crisis, government is not the solution to our problems, government is the problem.” So, the fate of the Republican Party and the prospects of America will depend on whether the Republicans in Congress get that in earnest.

They can begin to prove that understanding by all voting against the Obama/Pelosi tax increases in unison as they did in the early ‘90s when Clinton sought to raise taxes. They must also vote against the spending and regulations referenced above.

If they do so, the Republicans will have a chance to take back the Congress - IF . . . if they learn once and for all that voters want a clear and bold agenda (a) which separates the parties in clear and very obvious ways, (b) which significantly lowers tax rates, and (c) which aggressively reforms and streamlines government thereby saving taxpayers real money and providing better solutions to the problems Americans face.

In sum, Republicans must become the party that truly fosters the conditions by which people, not government, can succeed. If Republicans don’t, then the next 2 years could be even worse.

What Would Happen If Obama Won
by Thomas G. Del Beccaro - May 20, 2008. Del Beccaro is Vice Chair of the California Republican Party and lives in Lafayette. He publishes Political Vanguard.com

Similar conservative bona fides aside, Rao emphasized his business acumen, while Wilson stressed his public record as councilmember and mayor of San Ramon. The endorsement required a two-thirds vote. After the result was announced the group expressed its sincere thanks and best wishes for Wilson.

Scott Kamena and Judy Lloyd, also running for the Republican nomination, did not attend.

Call for reservations or e-mail for more information: Margie Kauble (510) 758-2637 or Denise Gianni (510) 222-2637, or e-mail.