The survival strategy of the San Francisco Chronicle, and possibly newspapers in general, is to adopt the marketing model of Big Tobacco. Target your existing core customers of Boomer and G.I Joe readers and ride them into the grave, while grooming younger thirty-somethings with cash to spend on carefully packaged urbanity.
This, according C.W. Nevius, who spoke to the Walnut Creek Sunrise Rotary at Scott’s this morning. Nevius is the SF Chronicle columnist who was accused recently of disrespecteing certain homey East Bay bloggers. Nevius was understood to opine in part that newspapers do all the heavy lifting while bloggers steal the pearls of poorly paid and soon to be unemployed professional journalists, (not this part) who think so highly of themselves they are shocked on discovering no one wants to pay for their blather. Boo hoo.
Nevius did say that coming real soon now (May 2009) the Chronicle will bring a monster Heidelberg online that will print nuts-on high definition color on entire sections of high-quality glossy coated paper. The first phase of the Chronicle’s slick salvation strategy will imitate USA Today, with “charticles” consisting of maybe 200 word stories accompanied by charts, pictures, graphics, and other eye candy.
The whoop-ass press capability and glossy coated stock will give The Chron the opportunity to sell space to upscale advertisers like Versace that currently eschew unpredictable color reproduction on newsprint. Think New York Times Sunday Magazine in a newspaper format with a Sports Section and Comics.
But how much of the baby the print edition will throw out with the bath water is an open question:
- Color ads for Mercedes C63 in print and B&W ads from local dealers relegated to online classifieds?
- Sony Ads for Metallica in print but Mariah Carey tickets and raunchy ads for the club scene online?
- Then there’s the $64,000 question: “Can any Bay Area paper survive without being a wrap for Fry’s advertising?” “Probably not,” is the answer.
No matter how much lipstick they put on this pig it’s still a newspaper in big trouble. So the devil’s bargain will be to stop chasing demographics that never grew up reading an English newspaper. Instead, cater to the audience you already have hooked, and play to that demographic of aging geezers and HHI types addicted to spending discretionary income on sex (Viagra) drugs (Viagra), and Rock n Roll (a night at the Opera).
Noting the recent announcement of the Detroit papers to limit home delivery to just three times per week, Nevius predicted that one day, The Chronicle print edition will ikely amount to just 20,000 in a brave new media world where any print edition is a perk or add-on for the rich and famous.
Compare to the current conventional wisdom that offers free access to online content with a print subscription (e.g. WSJ). But this never worked as information just gots to be free, or so they say. According to Nevius, this model will be turned upside down where the new commodity will be ubiquitous online access with a print subscription as the premium add on. Like good-better-best cable TV offers, look for further segmentation of online access, as well. Sign up now for the NFL Ticket and get home delivery of The Chron free for 3 months.
All of this is simply speculation, and does not mean anything unless the newspaper industry, right now, fires every ad sales person that’s been on the payroll for more than two years. Take it to the bank: print sales guys are useless in an online world. They don’t know the Internet, they don’t know the nomenclature, they don’t know how to sell online advertising other than outsourcing online or print classified ads to the Philippines. Better to hire ad sales talent from radio than the cherry pickers that, like seasoned public school teachers, are just running out the clock.
