Lights out in Harmerville

John Garamendi crushed David Harmer last night in the CD-10 congressional election. With an eighteen point registration advantage to the Democrats, the result was never really in doubt.

I have to wonder who the Harmer campaign was talking to as they touted a poll saying they were in the margin of error. These types of “internal” polls are highly suspect and are either a disinformation tool to fire up the base, or an extremely flawed poll provided by money hungry consultants. 

Harmer deserves credit for coming out of nowhere and running a legitmate campaign with the ferver of a religious revival. But a candidate with his talents would be a lot better served if he had run for a lower office first.

But then that is the problem. There is no support structure for candidates to develop in the local GOP. This is more a function of the ideological makeup for the Republican Party where you hate governement but try to get elected to governement with heavy focus on culture war. Therefore when an opportunity opens up like CD-10 there is no bench to pull from. Just a pool of folks who voters have never heard of. The last locally elected Republican to a partisan seat was Guy Houston who served as Mayor of Dublin before successfully serving three terms in the state assembly.  Even Richard Pombo was a city councilman before being elected to Congress. In an electoral climate where voter registration is lopsided for the Democrats or barely even having name ID on a ballot is crucial.

The GOP spinmeisters no doubt will declare a moral victory.

But there are no moral victories in politics. You either win and govern, or lose. Victory is total with campaign depts paid, the kleig lights turned on, and the glory of the new office.  Defeat is the empty feeling of the monumental effort made only to come up short. Either way it is a dream that gets played out on the public stage.

The Harmer campaign was a huge waste of time, energy, and money by the Republicans. To put this much energy into a campaign where the outcome was never in doubt, instead of a place that can yield real results like developing and supporting local candidates speaks more to the dysfunctional state of Republicans in Contra Costa and California in general than anything else.

But there will be a chance at redemption, if the resources can be marshaled and the troops can be rallied. Assembly Distict 15 at the moment is a winnable race even though  voter registration numbers while they have slipped in favor of the Democrats (4 points).

But there will be a chance at redemption

If the energy of the of the Harmer campaign can be brought to back for San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson. He has a chance against a weakened incumbent. Yet, contrary to the prevailing Republican opinion, Joan Buchanan will not be easy to knock off if she decides to run again. The power of incumbency and the willingness of state and local Democrats to put aside their differences in order to win is renown when it comes to GOP beat down time.

Another Opportunity will be in Congressional District 11 where the most interesting candidate is a grape grower named Brad Goering who has strong financial backing and real world experience. But again the battle against a sitting encumbent is a difficult struggle at best.

While the Republicans did there best GOTV (get out the vote) effort in years the local Democrats are were not about to be bushwacked and had an around the clock GOTV effort of their own.

I had the chance to visit both campaigns Tuesday night. Harmer at Rocco’s Pizza was having a nice affair with all usual GOP players. I ran into Harmer, his wife, and California Republican Party Vice Chair Tom del Beccaro, out front. Inside it was a full house. Harmer gave a nice concession speech.

On my way out I ran into some fellow who was able to get elected to the John Sweet school board (ah the future). He was accompanied by a fellow who wrote a song for the Harmer campaign. I asked him to sing a a few bars (ah wacko). Lets just say it won’t be in the top ten any time soon. After I left the Harmer wake, I stopped by John Garimendi headquarters just for the contrast. There were three television trucks outside and the party had spilled out into the street. Lots of young people who looked like they just got off the bus from a Cal Berkeley football game. 

The CD 10 race was essentially over after the primary. Last night was basically a formality. The only regret I had was missing that drink with Edi.