The 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator to replace Barbara Boxer will produce a classic GOP matchup. California State Senator Chuck DeVore will play the role of the Uber Conservative. Former HP Chairwoman and CEO Carly Fiorina will play the plucky moderate Republican.
I have witnessed and participated this strange kabuki dance so many times that I can write the script. In California, usually, the conservative usually wins the Republican Primary. Check Bill Simon’s stunning victory for the Republican gubernatorial nomination over Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordian in 2002. Movement conservatives are a funny lot. Like so-called Yellow Dog Democrats, they will always vote for the conservative over a moderate Republican no matter what the conservative’s chances are to win the general election.
In light of the current disaster that is the California Republican Party the suspense of 2010 will be if the conservatives stay true to the script and nominate the unelectable DeVore. Or, will the GOP go off the page and back the better funded moderate, Fiorina? History has taught me not to underestimate conservatives in a GOP Primary as their endless appitite for the ritual of their old time religion is endless.
Fiorina comes with her own flaws. In last year’s presidential campaign, Fiorina made a huge gaff while acting as a surogate for John McCain. She was asked by Andria Mitchell on CNBC if she thought that Sarah Palin could run Hewlitt Packard. She answered correctly: Sarah Palin could not run Hewlett Packard but then she added on her own that john McCain could not run HP, either.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1Jr4YfSemk
Now in fairness to Fiorina, I agree that John McCain, a technologically challenged luddite is probably not suited to run a diversified technology company like Hewlett Packard. But this highlights how Fiorina was not ready for primetime in this instant media age, and she was imediately sent to the McCain woodshed for therest of the campaign. This was an act of either inexperience or just hubris on the part of Fiorina. You decide.
For me in the 2010 U.S. Senate primary, California needs leaders with hard political experience. Back rooms and bare knuckles, baby. I am not so sure that being a business leader translates into being a great senator. Nor is this to suggest that the relatively inexperienced DeVore would not be better off running for the house of representatives somewhere else in the state (check John Garamendi and Tom McClintock).
Comedy or tragedy loom large for Republicans in the 2010 passion play to unseat Boxer. Will hapless California Republicans snatch potential victory from the jaws of defeat by choosing the moderate Fiorina? Or will the GOP wear its conservative heart on its sleeve and choose DeVore as their leading man only to face the tragic death scene in the third act?
Either way, it will be great theater to watch.
